Re: Oberheim Echoplex Digital Pro -- Market Demand & Availability Stu dy

[buzzard@world.std.com (Sean T Barrett)]

Pretty comprehensive.  Nice job.

I'm not a professional statistician, but I wanted to take some
time to correct what I believe are some misleading statistics
and interpretations.  No flame intended.

>*      Almost 40% of EDP owners live within 80-90 miles of Oakland.
>And 54% of all the EDP owners also live between Los Angeles and
>Berkeley, California. 

This statistic is impossible to interpret without similar statistics
about the entire sample (e.g. if 54% of the entire sample lived between
LA and Berkeley, it would mean something quite different than is
implied!)  The detailed results cover part of this (but no number
for LA-Berkeley).

>*      Seventy-six percent (76.4%) of those who have tried an EDP
>indicate they also own an EDP.  This can be interpreted to testify that
>three-quarters of those who try an EDP go on to buy an EDP.

This really can't be judged with much certainly without more
data.  For example, anyone who buys one without trying it first
ends up in this category.  (That such people exist seems likely,
since, for example, the apparent paradox observed in another
set of questions--don't want to try, but want to buy--can be
explained by people with this intention.)

>                                             This may mean that
>contacting 1000 existing EDP owners (from user supplied warranty card
>information) via direct mail with an offer to buy another EDP could
>instantly yield orders for sales of 462 EDP additional units.

I know you said "may" and "could", but I want to stress that
the obvious general danger here is generalizing from the sample
of "people who subscribe to loopers-delight" as being reflective
of all consumers.  It's certainly _possible_ that all EDP owners
are hardcore loopists like people on this list (what else are
they doing with their EDP, after all), and certainly that's more
likely the case than Digitech delay owners.  But even suggesting
it translates directly into sales is questionable.

Also, I wasn't going to tweak you for reporting results with the
extra decimal place, but, really, 462?  Assuming just +-1
respondent (which is probably an underestimate of the error),
the original statistic (6/13, I assume) goes to 6/14..7/14,
which is 42-50%, or 46 +- 4%, or 460+-40 units in your example.
Reporting the extra decimal places just implies more accuracy
than is really there, adding a false authority to the numbers
which, if the reader knows better, makes them more suspicious
of the results.

>*      However, on the whole, the number one reason for wanting to buy
>an EDP is it's perceived as the "Best Overall Looper" cited by 34.2% --
>which comes from combining the answers "Better than JamMan" (17.1%) and

The members of loopers-delight have access to a very current, active,
up-to-date information source on the merits of various looping devices
(namely the mailing list itself); perhaps this merely implies a form
of consumer education Gibson needs to engage in to increase demand.
But I certainly wouldn't expect people without access to this list
to have the same perceptions as things stand.

Anyway, these are all just minor interpretation issues.  I
just don't think statistics should be presented in the "best
possible light to prove a point"--which is why I'll never
play well with marketing departments...

And, off topic, I strongly recommend a read of the old classic
"How to Lie with Statistics" to anyone interested in the subject
of the various ways statistics can be misleading.

Like I said, overall, good work.  Thanks.

Sean Barrett